(KTEN) – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2024 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on May 23.

With the start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1, forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) predict an above average year in terms of tropical cyclone numbers. More specifically, forecasters predict an 85% chance of an above average season, 10% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of a below average season.

2024 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

 

NOAA is forecasting around 17 to 25 named storms this year. Of those, 8 to 13 could become hurricanes, with 4 to 7 strengthening into major hurricanes. The list of tropical cyclone names for the Atlantic basin have been compiled as well.

2024 Atlantic tropical cyclone names

 

According to NOAA, as one of the strongest El Niños ever observed quickly transitions to La Niña, which is conducive to tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, weaker wind shear will become apparent in the tropics. Additionally, sea surface temperatures are running well above average in the Atlantic and Caribbean, so this will enhance storm development throughout the season.

An above average West African Monsoon could also exist this season, allowing more African easterly waves to push off the African Coast and produce some of the strongest and longer-lived Atlantic storms.

Light trade winds could also help storms develop and maintain strength due to light wind shear and limited oceanic cooling.

Weather conditions in the US while La Nina is present

 

NOAA will be implementing improvements to forecast communications, decision support services, and storm recovery efforts this season. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will expand Spanish language text products to include all Public Advisories, Tropical Cyclone Discussions, Tropical Cyclone Updates, and Key Messages in the Atlantic Basin.

Beginning on or around August 15, NHC will begin issuing an experimental version of the forecast cone graphic that includes inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings that will help communicate inland hazards during tropical cyclone events.

Additionally, NHC will be able to issue tropical cyclone watches and warnings with regular or intermediate advisories. If updates to watches and warnings for storm surge or winds are needed, the NHC will be able to issue those in a special intermediate advisory instead of waiting for the next full advisory, which are issued every 6 hours.

Unmanned surface vehicles will again be deployed at the start of the hurricane season, sending back real-time data every single minute. 11-12 Saildrones are planned for deployment this hurricane season.

Saildrones are used to gain invaluable data from hurricanes

 

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t arrive until early September, so we still have plenty of time to see how this year will pan out.

Yearly frequency of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

 

This outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. The Climate Prediction Center will issue another update in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.

You can read more about NOAA’s hurricane season outlook at this link: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season