(KTEN) – The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued an El Niño Watch on April 13. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a watch is issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño within the next six months.

 

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is defined as a climate pattern that is driven by sea surface temperature and precipitation departures from average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean that can influence weather and climate patterns across the US and around the world.

El Nino conditions typically bring warmer and wetter conditions to Texoma
El Nino conditions typically bring warmer and wetter conditions to Texoma National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

 

El Niño is the warm phase of ENSO with sea surface temperatures being higher than average and precipitation departures greater than average in the area involving the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

 

We are currently in an ENSO-neutral phase. But, the CPC forecasts a 62% chance that El Niño will develop sometime between May and July. This switch in phase comes after a historic “triple-dip” La Niña that has lasted for the past three years.

 

What does this mean for Texoma? Well, we typically see a warmer and wetter pattern during an El Niño, so we can start to forecast this pattern as we head into the summer.

The CPC will continue to monitor the potential development of El Niño and will issue another update on May 11, 2023.