The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Declines - KTEN.com - No One Gets You Closer

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Declines

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SOURCE The Conference Board

BRUSSELS, Aug. 13, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany declined 0.1 percent in June to 110.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in May, and a 0.2 percent increase in April.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent in June to 108.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in May, and a 0.1 percent increase in April. 

In June, the LEI for Germany declined marginally for the first time since the fourth quarter of last year, but its six-month growth rate was unchanged compared to six months ago. Meanwhile, the CEI has been improving moderately over the first half of this year, and as a result its six-month growth rate has improved. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the current economic expansion should continue into the second half of 2014, although the pace of growth is unlikely to accelerate.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany  
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods  
Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month  
Change in Inventories  
Gross Enterprise and Property Income  
Stock Prices  
New Orders, Residential Construction 
Consumer Confidence Index

About The Conference Board  
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

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For more information including full press release and technical notes:  
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:  
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

 

 

Summary Table of Composite Indexes


2014


6-month



Apr



May



Jun



Dec to Jun














Leading Economic Index (LEI)  

110.1

p


110.2


110.1

p




    Percent Change

0.2

p


0.1

p


-0.1

p


1.5

p

    Diffusion 

85.7



78.6



50.0



85.7














Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

108.4



108.2



108.4





    Percent Change 

0.1


-0.2



0.2



0.6


    Diffusion

50.0



12.5



62.5



75.0














n.a. Not available    p Preliminary    r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board      All Rights Reserved

 

 

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